FZAK30 PAFC 272220
ICOAFC

Sea Ice Outlook for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 
220 PM AKDT Thursday 27 May 2024

...JUNE 2024 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK...


The month of June began with scattered areas of brash ice left in 
the southern Bering Sea and Norton Sound, and lingering previously 
shorefast ice along the Yukon Delta. The main area of sea ice was 
flowing through the Bering Strait toward northeastern Saint Lawrence 
Island, and around the east side of the island. By the end of the 
month, Alaska waters of the Bering Sea were essentially sea ice free 
except for areas of brash ice northeast of Saint Lawrence Island. 
The melt season began in earnest in the southern Chukchi Sea as a 
large polynya remained open along the northwest portion of the 
state. The far southern Chukchi Sea began to open up and melt out as 
warmer currents from the Bering Sea have transitioned into a 
marginal ice zone. The Beaufort Sea has remained ice covered, but 
rivers began to degrade shorefast ice along the North Slope.  


Looking ahead through the break-up season, ENSO-neutral conditions 
are expected for a short period during the summer months, then La 
Nina is expected to develop during late summer or early fall. We are 
expecting break-up to speed up across the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas 
in July and August before reaching seasonal sea ice minimum in mid-
September.


Detailed information can be found in each pertinent section below.


...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA...


Saint Lawrence Island to the Bering Strait is expected to be sea ice 
free during the last week of June. 


The Bering Strait is expected to be sea ice free to 20 nm north and 
south of the center line during the last week of June.


The Bering Sea is expected to be sea ice free by the end of June.


...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA...


For navigational waters from Wales to Espenberg, sea ice 
concentration is expected to reach three tenths during the first 
week of July and be sea ice free during the second week of July.


For Kotzebue Sound, sea ice concentrations are expected to reach 
three tenths during the first week of July and be sea ice free 
during the second week of July.


For navigational waters from Cape Krusenstern to Point Hope, three 
tenths concentration is expected during the first week of July and 
sea ice free conditions are expected during the second week of July.


For navigational waters from Point Hope to Wainwright, sea ice 
concentration is expected to decrease to three tenths by the end of 
June and be sea ice free for the season during the second week of 
July. 


For Wainwright to Utqiagvik, sea ice concentration is expected to 
decrease to three tenths around during the second week of July and 
sea ice free conditions are expected by the fourth week of July.


From Icy Cape to Point Barrow west to 170W, sea ice concentration 
less than three tenths is expected during the first half of August. 
This area is expected to be sea ice free for the season by the end 
of August. 


For North and West of Point Barrow to 75N and 170W, sea ice is 
expected to reach three tenths coverage during the first half of 
September, and be ice free for the year by the end of September.


...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA...


From Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point, sea ice is expected to no 
longer be shorefast during the last week of June. Sea ice is 
expected to reach three tenths concentration during the third week 
of July. Ice free conditions are expected during the last week of 
July. 


From Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island, sea ice is expected to no 
longer be shorefast during the last week of June. This area is where 
sea ice near the Alaska coastline tends to linger the longest. Sea 
ice concentration is expected to reach three tenths during the 
second half of August and may be sea ice free by the end of August.


From Point Barrow to Cape Halkett, sea ice is expected to no longer 
be shorefast during the last week of June. Sea ice concentration is 
expected to reach three tenths during the first half of August and 
be sea ice free for the season during the second half of August.


For Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point to 75N, the ice edge will 
likely retreat to 73N or 74N with three tenths coverage expected 
around mid-September. Ice free conditions are not expected above 
74N. 


For Harrison Bay to Flaxman Island to 75N, the ice edge will likely 
retreat to near 74N or 75N  with three tenths coverage expected mid-
September. Ice free conditions are not expected. 


...FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA...


Sea ice is expected to begin growing within the pack during the 
second half of September.


For Demarcation Point to Utqiagvik to 75N, ice growth could extend 
south of the ice pack by the end of September but is more likely in 
October. 



$$ 
Lawson