FXUS64 KLIX 062342 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 642 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 A broad upper level trough is centered along the midsection of the country and encompasses all but the western/eastern fringes of the country. A frontal boundary associated with this feature moved in yesterday and basically is no longer discernible. The lift from this boundary was part of such high coverage yesterday and less forced lift has certainly limited convection so far today. Subsidence from high pressure around Beryl is possibly stunting convection as well. Do think the bigger player is less moisture, both at the surface and mid levels. While it's not a huge difference, when combined with the other factors above definitely has delayed appreciable initiation. Just starting to see a few showers develop along/north of I-12 in LA and SW MS. SPC meso analysis shows moisture convergence to be greatest in this portion of the CWA. This lines up with surface obs showing persistent southerly winds from the coast to here and clouds on VIS are growing vertically the most along there. CAM solutions over the next 3-6 hours generally agree fairly decently but intensity and overall coverage confidence is relatively low. Any storms that develop could produce sub-severe gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall. Once we lose daytime heating, convection will dissipate with time. Sunday will be fairly similar but with possibly even less coverage. The CWA is on the outer periphery of Beryl and thinking that subsidence from it across the local area will play an even bigger part to limiting convection. The CAMs appear to do a great job recognizing this, while the NBM doesn't. The GFS model forecast of the precipitable water spatially does show a swath of dry air on the eastern side of Beryl surging northward into the CWA. The gradient of this dry air and tropical airmass is right on the western edge of the CWA. Therefore, have modified POPs tomorrow to account for higher and lower rain chances with higher to the west and lower coverage to the east. Then, when it comes to heat, still held off on borderline heat advisory. Cloud cover potential along with slightly lower temps/dewpoints compared to previous days makes the go/no go decision a bit tough. So will pass it on the later shifts. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday night) Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The biggest thing to watch after this weekend will be isolate areas of heavy rainfall. As the remnants of Beryl are being absorbed by the upper trough to the north and track east across the lower Mississippi Valley. As seen in previous decaying tropical systems tracking northward, models show the trough dragging a tail of rainfall along the eastern side of the remnants extending from the base of the trough/remnant Beryl to well south into the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday through Wednesday. Forecast PW's in the 2.4-2.6" aren't surprising and quite concerning, especially when combined with ample instability in place. No way to know where one of these tropical rain bands lines up but with very efficient precip processes expected, certainly could see some surprisingly high streaks of very heavy rainfall. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Convection has been much more limited this afternoon as compared to the previous few days. Most of the convection has been near terminals to the north of Interstate 12...KBTR/KMCB/KHDC. Radar has shown a few collisions between storm outflows and lake/sea breezes, so can't totally rule out convection reaching the Interstate corridor before dissipation. Interesting forecast for tomorrow, as the global models and a goodly chunk of CAMs are showing little in the way of development of storms. Forecast soundings show much lower precipitable water values tomorrow, from 1.7 to 1.9 inches, vs the 2.25-2.6 inches we've been dealing with the last several days. This may partially be due to subsidence on the periphery of TS Beryl. While we'll carry the period of MVFR ceilings tomorrow morning as has been the case the last several mornings, the only mention of VCTS tomorrow afternoon will be at KMCB and KBTR, closest to the higher moisture content. && .MARINE... Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 A broad upper level trough is centered along the midsection of the country and encompasses all but the western/eastern fringes of the country. A frontal boundary associated with this feature has stalled along the northern Gulf Coast and broken down the surface pressure gradient. This lack of a driving pressure field is why the wind field is so light across the local marine areas. That'll change for open Gulf waters west of the MS River Sunday into Tuesday as Beryl tracks through the western Gulf of Mexico into Texas. The overall size and wind field is quite a bit smaller in size compared to Alberto from June. So while Small Craft Advisory wind speeds are possible, more likely looking at 48hr-ish period of Exercise caution conditions in those non-tidal lake zones. Then, once the remnants of Beryl eject northward, benign conditions return to the coastal waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 73 93 74 93 / 40 20 10 50 BTR 78 96 78 96 / 40 30 10 60 ASD 77 95 77 93 / 30 20 10 60 MSY 80 94 80 93 / 40 20 10 70 GPT 78 93 79 92 / 30 20 10 50 PQL 77 95 77 95 / 30 20 10 50 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ME LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...RW MARINE...ME