FXUS64 KLCH 062343 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 643 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 418 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The big question on everyone's mind is Tropical Storm Beryl so lets jump right in. Tropical Storm Beryl is currently located in the central Gulf of Mexico and moving west-northwest around 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Today and tonight, Beryl is expected to reorganize, reaching hurricane strength sometime Sunday afternoon in the nearshore waters before making landfall. The current forecast keeps the main impact of Beryl out of our area but secondary impacts, like flash flooding, will be felt across the region. The system is expected to make landfall between Galveston and Corpus Christi sometime Sunday night or early Monday morning as a Category 1 hurricane. Even with the recent rightward shift of the track direct impacts from Beryl remain low for our area.  Now for the main concerns to southeast Texas, central Louisiana and southwest Louisiana. The main concerns remain coastal flooding and heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. There is a Marginal Risk (1/4) for flash flooding today through Sunday, with a Slight Risk (2/4) on Monday. As Beryl approaches the coast, moisture transport will become more efficient, with the GFS showing PWAT amounts that will break the all-time daily max of 2.42 inches. Ensemble models are not as bullish as the GFS but still show PWATs around 2.3 inches. Well above the 90th percentile, but not all time records. Widespread 2 to 6 inches of rain are expected, with localized amounts over 10 inches possible. Where the heaviest rain will fall will be primarily dependent on the track of Beryl. Since there is still plenty of uncertainty, we can't stress enough the need to watch the forecast closely while this storm is still in the Gulf of Mexico.  A storm surge watch is now in effect for parts of the Texas coast to Sabine Pass. Surge values are expected to be between 2 and 4 feet.  East of the Sabine Pass surge, will be between 1 and 3 feet. Mainly during high tides. The coastal flood advisory will continue for areas east of Sabine Pass. Overcast skies and high PoPs will continue through the rest of the weekend with high temperatures in the low 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Friday) Issued at 418 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The long-term forecast will start with the remnants of Beryl west and north of the forecast area. As Beryl continues to move inland, it will bend towards the northeast. This will allow the system to pull more tropical moisture into our area. Because of this, the flash flooding threat will remain elevated, with a Slight Risk (2/4) on Tuesday. Heavy rainfall combined with slow moving storms is a bad combination, especially with the saturated ground from the previous weekend's rain. The areas that will receive the heaviest rainfall will be determined by the exact track of Beryl, which is still uncertain. Overall expect a wet first part of next week. By midweek, a frontal boundary will absorb the remains of Beryl and sweep it off to the northeast. Meanwhile, we will remain under an unstable and weak flow aloft. The unstable air when combined with the abundant moisture PWATs > 2 inches, will keep high PoPs in the forecast. This pattern will continue into the weekend. The good news about the wet and overcast weather is that temperatures will be on the lower side, with highs in the low 90s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Mostly VFR conditions are anticipated through tonight. Scattered showers and storms are expected to redevelop Sunday with periods of lower vis and ceilings possible. Light and VRB winds will become east to northeast at 5 to 10kts during the late morning Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 418 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The main issue is Tropical Storm Beryl, which is currently located in the central Gulf of Mexico and is tracking west-northwest at 12 mph. Currently, the maximum sustained winds are 52 knots (60 mph). A Tropical Storm Watch will go into effect for the western coastal waters this evening at 6 p.m. Tonight will be the last of the weak onshore flow and lower seas. As Tropical Storm Beryl continues to track north, towards the Texas coast, conditions will quickly deteriorate, with seas and winds rapidly building. By Sunday night, winds will be above 20 knots, with gusts approaching 30 knots. The seas will rapidly build as Beryl approaches, with maximum wave heights of 10 feet in the western waters. In the eastern waters, wave heights will be topping out around 7 feet. These conditions will continue through Wednesday. The period with these waves will be long, around 10 seconds. Near thunderstorms, winds and waves will be higher with shorter periods. During this time, heavy showers and thunderstorms will also be a concern. Conditions will gradually begin to improve on Thursday and Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 73 93 74 92 / 20 50 10 60 LCH 77 91 79 90 / 20 50 30 80 LFT 78 94 79 93 / 40 50 20 70 BPT 77 93 79 89 / 20 50 50 90 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for LAZ073-074. TX...None. GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ450-470. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...05