FXUS64 KCRP 062338 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 638 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 514 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 A stalled boundary across I-10 has gradually been moving southward and is now about to enter the Victoria Crossroads. As the boundary moves southward, it's triggering thunderstorms which are capable of small hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph. This activity should continue and diminish as we approach sunset and lose daytime heating. As for Tropical Storm Beryl, it continues to approach the coast, the hurricane and tropical storm watches have been upgraded to a hurricane and tropical storm warnings. Likewise, the storm surge watch has been upgraded to a storm surge warning for all coastal areas north of the north entrance of Padre Island National Seashore. Storm surge of 4-6 feet is expected north of Mesquite Bay and 3-5 south of Mesquite Bay. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Key Messages: - All of South Texas interests should continue to monitor the progress of Beryl - Rain chances increase Sunday and continue into next week. - Hurricane Watch, Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect along the Middle Texas Coast All eyes are on Tropical Storm Beryl as it continues to move west- northwest across the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Beryl to strengthen into a hurricane making landfall as a high end category 1, however, a category 2 cannot be ruled out. With hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge expected along the Middle Texas Coast in the next 48 hours, Hurricane Watches and Storm Surge Watches are in effect. Rain chances are expected to pick up across the Gulf waters and Coastal Bend Sunday and extending inland to the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads Sunday night, increasing in coverage Monday. While everyone is focused on the landfall location, all of South Texas should prepare for the dangerous hazards and impacts that will be felt away from the center of the storm. Regardless of where Beryl eventually makes landfall, all of South Texas east of Webb and LaSalle counties can expect periods of heavy rain, strong winds and isolated to scattered tornadoes. Due to the heavy rain threat, Duval and McMullen counties remain under a Marginal Risk (at least 5% chance of flash flooding) of excessive rain Sunday through Tuesday across the Coastal Plains and southern Coastal Bend under a Slight Risk (at least a 15% chance of flash flooding) of excessive rainfall Sunday and Monday dropping to a Marginal Risk Tuesday. Across the Victoria Crossroads where the rainfall threat will be the greatest given the latest forecast track, WPC has highlighted that area under a Slight Risk Sunday increasing to a Moderate Risk (at least 40% of flash flooding) Monday with significant flooding possible. Due to the high probability of flash flooding, we will be issuing Flood Watch for the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Bend. For more information with Tropical Storm Beryl, please refer to our most recent Hurricane Local Statement. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 As we head into the middle portion of next week, rain chances associated with Beryl will gradually decrease as it races to the northeast. Low to medium chances for rain will linger through the latter half of the week. In the wake of Tropical Storm Beryl mid to late this week, temperatures will increase back to slightly above normal with heat index values between 105-109 degrees with a low chance for heat index values to increase to 110-113 degrees for a few hours each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Showers and storms have developed off a stalled boundary in the Hill Country and have continued to develop along the outflow boundaries extending into the Victoria Crossroads impacting VCT. Could see brief MVFR ceilings with this passing convection. Outside of this convection, VFR conditions will prevail with brief fog potential over ALI between 10-13Z. Winds will increase in the afternoon as outer rain bands extend from Beryl and lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Coastal Plains, impacting VCT/CRP/ALI. && .MARINE... Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Conditions will begin to deteriorate later today with seas increasing from east to west ahead of Tropical Storm Beryl. Winds will rapidly increase Sunday into Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are expected Sunday night and Monday with wave heights up to 25-30 feet. Gradually improving conditions can be expected by mid- week. Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Monday, with scattered thunderstorms lingering into mid- week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 94 78 91 / 20 50 50 70 Victoria 75 93 77 83 / 50 50 50 80 Laredo 78 101 79 99 / 0 10 0 30 Alice 75 97 78 94 / 10 30 30 60 Rockport 81 94 79 91 / 30 50 60 80 Cotulla 78 102 80 98 / 10 0 0 30 Kingsville 77 95 78 93 / 10 40 40 60 Navy Corpus 82 90 79 91 / 30 50 60 70 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Hurricane Warning for TXZ234-245>247-342>347-442-443-447. Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ232-233-242>244. Flood Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for TXZ233-234-245>247-346-347-447. Storm Surge Warning for TXZ245-343>347-443-447. Storm Surge Watch for TXZ342-442. High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...JCP LONG TERM....JCP AVIATION...EMF/94