FXUS63 KDLH 070013 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 713 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms and scattered rain showers persist mainly over northeast Minnesota into the evening. - A few stronger storms may form in northwest Wisconsin Sunday afternoon, with lingering chances into the late evening hours. - Monday and Tuesday feature continued daytime storm chances before a downturn in activity is expected Wednesday and Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 A stationary boundary remains parked over the Iron Range and into central Minnesota this afternoon, which has been aiding formation of widely scattered thunderstorms and numerous rain showers in mainly north-central to far northeast Minnesota so far today. Updrafts are not staying aloft very long though due to very little mid-level support from weak lapse rates and highly disorganized and weak shear. Collapsing storms have created outflow winds to 35 mph today, which is about the peak expected into the early to mid-evening hours today. Fairly warm low-levels and the weak support aloft have limited hail product, with high liquid rainfall amount signatures being seen on the dual-pol radar data with the stronger thunderstorms. Although, mixed layer CAPE to 1000 J has promoted up to dime size hail with most being favored for only pea size reports. These storms are expected to last into the mid-evening hours today, but are already showing signs of weakening where earlier activity was prevalent (Cass/Crow Wing/Itasca Counties). An incoming shortwave vort max, currently in the Dakotas, moves into central Minnesota after Midnight tonight. Forecast model soundings show lingering MUCAPE overnight potentially aiding in isolated storm development within a broader line of weak rain showers as a quasi-warm front crosses over the Northland from south to north late tonight into Sunday morning. As the vort max lifts northeastward into the Arrowhead tomorrow afternoon, stronger and veering southwest to westerly low to mid- level flow sets up in northwest Wisconsin. Under areas with partial clearing, most favored along the MN/WI stateline counties Sunday afternoon a few stronger thunderstorms are expected to form. The primary threat would be small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph. A backdoor cold front drops southward Sunday evening and brings an end to storm chances by Midnight Sunday night. A period of cooler air aloft under north-northwesterly flow and diurnal instability will lead to additional non-severe thunderstorm chances for Monday and Tuesday afternoon and evenings. A mid- level drier airmass works into the Northland from Ontario Wednesday and lasts into Thursday and Friday to create very little or no rain shower or thunderstorm chances over the region for mid-week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 712 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Scattered showers and isolated storms slowly moving across the terminals this evening, mainly in the general area of KDLH, KHIB and KBRD. While conditions are predominantly VFR, individual cells may bring a brief period of MVFR conditions. The vast majority of the convection will dissipate by 02z. However, a wave of rain with embedded storms will spread into the terminals from the southwest this evening, continuing overnight and into Sunday. Ceilings are likely to drop to consistent MVFR, with brief periods of MVFR visibilities in rain showers. Improvement is expected to VFR after 18z. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Isolated thunderstorms within a half-mile of the shoreline may occur into this evening along the North Shore, but impacts would be limited to a brief period of moderate rain, lighting strikes within a few miles of the shorelines and erratic wind gusts to 20 knots through mid-evening today. A weak low pressure moves into the Northland from the Dakotas later tonight and brings another round of showers and isolated storms to the area early Sunday morning. Winds shift to easterly over the lake Sunday afternoon and could gust around 15 knots at the head of the lake Sunday late afternoon and evening. Sunday afternoon may feature a locally strong thunderstorm along the South Shore, but chances are only around 10% at this time. Light winds and thunderstorm chances last into Monday as well. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 440 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 A Flood Advisory continues across portions of the Rainy River Basin, extending as far east as Lac La Croix and as far west as the Rainy Lake outlet. Lingering high water from rains in June continue across the Rainy River Basin. Headwaters gauges on the Kawishiwi River, Basswood River, and Lake Vermilion have crested and are slowly but surely coming down (Lake Vermilion falling at a rate of a measly quarter inch a day). The Vermilion River is also beginning to fall once again, after taking a turn upwards after a second round of heavy rains at the beginning of July. This has allowed the lake level increases on Crane Lake to slow considerably, nearly flatlining just above minor flood stage. Lac La Croix levels continue to increase though, the product of not only the high water from the Basswood River but numerous Canadian tributaries coming out of the Quetico as well. Latest data suggest that inflow and outflow are nearly meeting on Lac La Croix, which could help levels begin to crest soon. All this high water has led to some decent rises on downstream lakes, notably Namakan/Kabetogama (Nam/Kab) lakes (minor flooding ongoing), as well as levels beginning to increase on Rainy Lake (still within rule curves). Per the latest IJC water level bulletin, dam operators are working to maximize outflow through the basin. However, the sheer volume of water moving through the basin will still result in additional rises on these lakes. As water levels upstream crest and begin to come down, rates of rise on Nam/Kab should begin to slow and eventually crest. We've already seen the rates of rise begin to demonstrate signs of slowing. From July 1 to 3rd, Nam/Kab Lakes were rising at 2- 2.5" per day, but have recently slowed to 1-1.5"/day in the last 48 hours or so. General guidance suggest peak levels on Nam/Kab could be possible this coming week, but that is uncertain. As is usual for this basin, water will move slowly and recessions will happen at glacial speeds. Additional rainfall may cause brief rises in tributaries and extend the period of high water in core lakes. Boaters should expect high water, potentially hidden underwater hazards, and strong currents in constricted areas. Generally light winds are expected, except for possible brief erratic gusts out of thunderstorms, so wave heights should remain fairly minimal. The Flood Advisory is in effect through Wednesday, but may need to be extended based on observed conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NLy AVIATION...LE MARINE...NLy HYDROLOGY...Levens