FXUS63 KAPX 062330
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
730 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms Monday, a few may be strong.

- Scattered thunderstorms again on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: 
Slight upper level ridging will build over head tonight. Drier
air aloft will seep in as well, setting up a mostly clear night
with calm winds. Patchy fog chances tonight in low spots and
near lakes and rivers. High chances for fog to remain patchy due
to shallow moisture near the surface. Warm temperatures, light
winds and partly cloudy skies tomorrow. A lake breeze will 
likely form and help afternoon CU bubble up, however low to no 
chances for showers out of these as instability will be minimal.
Skies will start to fill in towards the end of the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: 

Trough slides east later Sunday into Monday across Upper Midwest, 
then washes out to the northeast into Tuesday resulting in periods of 
showers and thunderstorms. General north to south, or northwest to 
southeast flow aloft into the middle to latter portions of next week 
as sfc high pressure builds into the region. No major frontal 
systems, at least ones of varying moisture content as dewpoints 
remain in the 50s and 60s through the week. Upper low in the 
vicinity of Michigan into next weekend, but not progged to have a 
whole lot of consequence at this time. 

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Southwest flow out ahead of an approaching upper feature, slow 
moving at that, Sunday night into Monday will result in clouds and 
showers overnight and into the morning. Instability will increase, 
on the order of ~1000J/kg, during the afternoon hours and this will 
result in the potential for scattered thunderstorms. Progged 
soundings show a modest environment overall, modest mid level lapse 
rates, ~30KTs of bulk shear/EBWD, thus an environment capable of 
producing strong thunderstorms (gusty winds, hail) given the right 
thermodynamic structure and storm mode is able to manifest. Unclear 
on how morning cloud cover/showers will impact the environment 
throughout the day but overall the potential remains for at least 
isolated strong thunderstorms in addition to areas of heavy rain. 
Not that all the eggs should be put in a basket via the 3km NAM, 
especially at the very end of the fcst cycle, but it does show some 
strong storms developing across northern lower Michigan. We'll see 
how the atmosphere evolves in the coming fcst cycles.

The atmosphere remains unstable on Tuesday, but with less shear and 
lift to work. Thus, thunderstorm threat will remain but largely sub-
severe, at least the current thinking. Nevertheless, scattered 
storms expected especially east of 75 with locally heavy rain a 
threat.

High pressure builds into the region later next week limiting 
overall storm coverage, although the moisture never really flushes 
out of the region entirely so may be an isolated chance here and 
there. Overall benign temperature swings as we remain within a few 
degrees of climatological normals. Murky thereafter but current 
guidance not pointing to anything large scale nor significant within 
this time frame at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 726 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Only real concern is the expected development of MVFR to IFR
producing fog/mist and stratus later tonight...with greatest 
confidence of this occurring at KCIU and KMBL. Expect rapidly
improving conditions Sunday morning. Light winds through the
period, with local lake breeze development possible by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MSB