FXUS62 KTBW 062351 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 751 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 751 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Despite the high surface dew points, afternoon thunderstorm coverage remained remarkably limited, confined mostly to right along the sea breeze boundary pinned closed to the west coast, west of Interstate 75. Early evening water vapor satellite imagery is showing an upper level low spinning over the Atlantic between the Bahamas and Bermuda, wrapping some dry air aloft into the Florida Peninsula. This dry air aloft is the most likely culprit for the unusually low rain coverage today over most of the forecast area. Rain chances were scaled back for the overnight period to reflect the recent rain and satellite trends. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track, and no other changes are planned for the evening update. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 751 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Generally VFR conditions will hold through the rest of the evening, though a few isolated showers are lingering along the west coast, and a brief flight category disruption cannot be completely ruled out. A few showers will be possible shifting onshore from the Gulf in the morning, but the bigger threat of convection will not start until after around 17-19z, with thunderstorms developing along the west coast then shifting inland through early evening. && .MARINE... Weak pressure gradient remains over the E Gulf waters with generally light winds and slight seas continuing into early-mid next week. Main concern will be thunderstorms producing locally gusty winds, higher seas, and lightning for mariners. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and humid summertime conditions continue with light winds and afternoon seabreezes to keep fire weather concerns minimalized. Light flow will again keep dispersion index values low. Expect daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms with gusty erratic winds and dangerous lightning possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 80 93 80 91 / 20 70 40 70 FMY 78 93 78 92 / 20 60 30 60 GIF 78 96 77 94 / 10 60 20 70 SRQ 78 93 78 91 / 20 60 40 70 BKV 75 95 76 93 / 20 60 30 70 SPG 83 93 83 91 / 20 60 50 70 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...FLEMING PREVIOUS MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...RDavis