FXUS62 KTAE 070105 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 905 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 853 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 No significant changes to the forecast for the overnight period. Main changes revolved around refining rain chances through the next few hours as remnant showers from this evening dissipate and a few ongoing showers/storms continue across our northern tier counties. The showers across Florida and into parts of extreme southern Georgia are remnant activity from this afternoon and will continue to fade into midnight while stuff to our north is being aided by a weak frontal boundary that's very slowly meandering south. With instability from this afternoon still present and the interaction of the slowly moving front, have kept rain chances going for a few hours past midnight in our northern locales. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Deep layer moisture remains over the area through the near term along with some ridging aloft. This will lead to scattered showers and storms during the afternoon hours with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall possible. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm in the 90s with heat index values in the 105 to 109 degree range. Held off on a head advisory at this point due to the uncertainty on shower and thunderstorm coverage and the subsequent effect of that on the highs. Lows are forecast to remain in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Monday night) Issued at 306 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 More of the same is in the forecast with the chance for showers and storms Monday afternoon into the evening. Temperatures will climb into the middle 90s Monday afternoon with middle to upper 70s for much of the area Sunday and Monday nights. Rain chances remain in the forecast despite the area being under an H5 ridge thanks to ample moisture in place. When combined with the daytime heating and the afternoon sea breeze, it should be enough to get scattered showers and storms going Monday afternoon. Dew points are forecast to be a tick lower Monday afternoon, which should keep heat indices generally between 103 to 107, or just shy of Heat Advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Not much change is forecast in the long term with daily afternoon shower/storm chances and highs in the middle 90s and lows in the middle to upper 70s each night. Looking a little deeper, there is an interesting H5 pattern taking shape across the US into the Atlantic with building H5 ridges over Utah/Nevada and near Bermuda. Meanwhile, a weak trough over the Great Lakes will keep the core of these ridges away from the region for much of the long term period. That said, H5 heights of 591dm are enough to keep lower to middle 90s in the forecast each afternoon. At the surface, a strong Bermuda high keeps ample moisture over the region, which is why shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast each afternoon. It's also worth noting that the remnants of Beryl will get absorbed into the mid-level flow early next week. Some guidance is suggesting slightly lower rain chances Wednesday as the remnants pass well to our north. Wasn't sold on lowering rain chances too much as of yet, but it's something we'll monitor in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 802 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The air mass will remain moist and unstable for the next 24 hours. Ongoing thunderstorm activity over east-central Alabama into Middle Georgia will slowly settle south over the next few hours before ultimately dissipating. This will pose a threat of thunder for DHN and ABY well into the evening. TLH and ECP are done with thunder for today. VLD could see thunder pop up nearby in the next hour or two. Late tonight and Sunday morning will be convectively quiet, but the moist air mass will lend itself to pockets of IFR and MVFR cigs in the hours around sunrise. On Sunday afternoon, summertime thermal lift will bring development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. TLH and VLD will be most prone to thunder due to proximity of the seabreeze in weak southwest flow, but any of our terminals could get thunder. && .MARINE... Issued at 306 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Isolated showers and storms remain possible into early next week, especially in the overnight and morning hours. Light southerly to southwesterly winds are expected into Tuesday before increasing slightly as the pressure gradient tightens over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by mid-week. Long period swells from Beryl will continue to move through the area into early next week before subsiding by mid-week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 306 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal with a moist airmass in place and a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. Heat index values will be high each afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 306 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected the next several days thanks to a moist summer environment in place. While widespread heavy rainfall is not currently expected, localized pockets of heavy rain in a short period of time could produced localized flash flooding, especially in urban and/or poor drainage areas and in areas that have already seen heavy rain during the past few days. No riverine flooding is anticipated the next 7 to 10 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 77 94 76 93 / 40 70 20 60 Panama City 79 91 79 91 / 20 40 20 50 Dothan 76 94 75 93 / 40 60 20 50 Albany 76 92 76 93 / 50 70 20 50 Valdosta 77 93 76 93 / 40 60 20 50 Cross City 77 94 76 92 / 20 50 20 60 Apalachicola 80 89 79 89 / 10 50 20 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Merrifield SHORT TERM...Reese LONG TERM....Reese AVIATION...Haner MARINE...Reese FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Reese