FXUS62 KMLB 062347 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 747 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 745 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The forecast remains on track across east central Florida tonight. Rain chances have continued to decrease as the sea breeze has pushed farther inland, with drier air helping to limit the development of showers and storms. A few light showers and a stray storm or two cannot fully be ruled out over the next couple of hours across Lake County, so have kept in 20 percent PoPs for the time being. Otherwise, conditions are forecast to remain mostly dry tonight, with mostly clear skies and light and variable winds. Temperatures will remain warm and muggy across east central Florida, with lows in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 745 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Mostly dry overnight with winds becoming light and variable across the terminals. Winds are forecast to remain light and variable into tomorrow morning. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to develop tomorrow afternoon and push inland, causing winds to become easterly along the coast around 17Z and across the interior around 19Z. Increasing chances for VCTS across the interior tomorrow afternoon as a result of the sea breeze and eventual sea breeze collision, with activity diminishing around 00Z. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 - A high risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents for portions of the coast continues through at least today. - An extended period of above-normal temperatures continues through this weekend. - Daily chances for showers and lightning storms, especially over the interior. Chances will increase early next week. Rest of Today-Tonight...Drier air has filtered into east central Florida from the Atlantic and has so far succeeded in preventing convection from developing as of around 230pm. Satellite observations even indicate PWATs have fallen to as low as 1.2-1.4" across the coastal counties. Expect to see this dry trend continue, with no mentionable PoPs east of Orlando. However, models continue to suggest showers, and possibly a few storms, developing over Lake County later this afternoon and into this evening along the sea breeze collision, where PWATs remain around 2". Have maintained PoPs 30-50% in this area, as showers have already begun to develop along the western half of the peninsula. Main threats with any storms will be gusty winds to 45mph, lightning strikes, and brief heavy downpours. Any convection will diminish this evening, with dry conditions forecast overnight. Hot temperatures continue this afternoon, with heat indices just below Heat Advisory criteria (102-107). As we reach peak heating, highs will reach the lower to mid-90s, with some upper 90s possible over the interior. Tonight, temperatures will remain warm and muggy, with morning lows in the mid to upper 70s. Sunday-Monday...A mid to upper level low over the western Atlantic shifts northward into early next week. This will shift winds southerly across the local area, drawing deeper moisture up from the tropics. PWATs returning to around 2" will support an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage in the afternoon. A less dominant east coast sea breeze will also lead to a more centralized collision over the Florida peninsula. Thus, the highest chances for convection will remain over the interior. But, will see PoPs increase to 30-60% Sunday and around 60% area-wide on Monday, with peak coverage in the afternoon hours. Temperatures will remain hot, as deeper moisture maintains high heat indices. High temperatures are forecast in the lower to mid-90s each day, though will need to monitor the need for Heat Advisories, especially on Sunday, due to heat indices 102-107+. Overnight low temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 70s. Tue-Fri (previous)...An onshore component develops by mid-week continuing into late week. PWATs remain around 2.00 inches and mid-level ridging will concentrate northward. Daily sea breezes with offshore steering flow thru Wed, becoming more southerly Thu- Fri. Keeping PoPs around 60pct areawide until more consistency dictates otherwise. Highs in the U80s to L90s each day, with clouds and onset of onshore breezes the deciding factor in the lower end of high max potential. Lows continue mainly in the 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Daily chances for showers and storms each day through mid week next week, with chances increasing through the period. Outside of convection, generally favorable boating conditions are forecast, with seas 1-3ft. Onshore winds today will veer southerly Sunday and Monday, then offshore into mid-week. However, will see winds back southeasterly each afternoon, as the sea breeze develops. Winds remaining under 15kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 93 77 93 / 10 30 10 60 MCO 76 96 78 94 / 10 60 20 60 MLB 77 93 78 92 / 0 30 20 60 VRB 75 93 76 93 / 10 30 10 60 LEE 78 95 78 94 / 20 60 20 60 SFB 77 95 78 94 / 10 50 20 60 ORL 77 96 79 94 / 10 50 20 60 FPR 75 93 76 92 / 10 30 10 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Tollefsen AVIATION...Tollefsen