FXUS62 KMFL 062319 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 719 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 703 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Weak high pressure remains over the area, which combined with the prevailing ESE flow resulted in having limited convection/shower activity favoring the western half of SoFlo. Radar shows some lingering lines of showers and isolated thunderstorms along the coastline of Mainland-Monroe and Collier counties early this evening, but should continue to gradually move offshore and dissipate. Overnight temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 70s, with much of SoFlo in the upper 70s or even low 80s along the coasts. With little relief from the warm temps overnight, Heat Advisories could be necessary again on Sunday with max heat index values possibly above 110 at some places. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1152 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 South Florida sits between Beryl to the west in the Gulf of Mexico and a mid-level low over the Atlantic. A relatively local area of high pressure over the eastern Gulf and the peninsula of Florida has kept the wind flow regime fairly light again today. Sea breezes will develop with inland showers and thunderstorms gradually moving west toward the Gulf coast by the evening. To the northwest over the Appalachians and the Tennessee Valley, a cold front has entered the southeastern United States but it will stall on Sunday as Beryl progresses northward and the Atlantic mid-level low moves westward. This all will pinch the high and create a more southerly wind pattern for Sunday. Again the sea breezes will develop but the convection will tend to move northward with a focus around the State Road 80 corridor and Lake Okeechobee by late afternoon/evening. The slow-moving nature of the storms and the abundant tropical moisture that will persist could lead to localized flooding in areas that become saturated. Temperatures continue to be stifling with widespread lower to mid 90s across South Florida for Sunday. With little in the way of overnight relief as temperatures struggle to fall into the lower 80s across the metro areas on both coasts, the threat of heat illness continues to be worthy of mention. Heat Advisories could be necessary for much of the area on Sunday as maximum heat index values climb into the 107 to 113 range across the southern peninsula of Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The weather pattern during the early to middle portion of the week remains rather uncertain and will be influenced by several factors. The first will be the evolution and direction of the mid level cut off low in the western Atlantic. The latest ensembles and global guidance remain in disagreement in the positioning of the mid level low as it slowly moves towards the Southeast coast. Some of the guidance has it weakening as it approaches the Carolina coastline towards the middle of the week, while other guidance shows a stronger mid level low pushing southwestward towards the Florida coast during this time frame. The second factor is the evolution of the potential for a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) moving towards the region from the southeast. The latest guidance shows the SAL moving into the region later on Monday and heading into Tuesday. This would help to introduce some drier air into the region which could help to limit shower and thunderstorm activity during this time frame. If the SAL were to miss us and stay to the south of the region, deeper layer moisture could work into the region as the mid level low pushes closer to the area. While sea breeze boundary development will still be the main focus for the development of showers and thunderstorms, the latest forecast takes a blend of the models and keeps the chances of convection close to a typical summertime pattern through the middle of the week. With winds gradually becoming east to southeasterly during this time frame, the highest chances will remain over the interior and west coast each afternoon. High temperatures during the early to middle portion of the week will generally remain in the upper 80s and lower 90s. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR expected to prevail at all terminals through around 14-15Z, then winds shift more southerly and bring increasing moisture across the area. Periods of MVFR/IFR are possible after 17Z with thunderstorms developing across the area. Winds become light and variable overnight, then southerly flow returns after 15Z. Only exception will be APF where Gulf breezes will shift winds to a westerly flow in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1152 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 A gentle to moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will become southerly heading into Sunday and the early portion of the week. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the early portion of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day. Winds and waves could be locally higher in and around showers and storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 81 93 80 92 / 20 50 30 40 West Kendall 78 94 78 93 / 20 50 30 30 Opa-Locka 80 94 80 93 / 20 50 30 40 Homestead 80 93 80 92 / 20 40 30 30 Fort Lauderdale 80 92 80 91 / 20 40 30 40 N Ft Lauderdale 80 93 80 92 / 20 40 30 50 Pembroke Pines 81 96 79 95 / 20 50 30 40 West Palm Beach 79 94 79 93 / 10 40 20 50 Boca Raton 80 94 79 93 / 10 40 30 50 Naples 80 93 80 92 / 30 60 30 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...17 SHORT TERM...RAG LONG TERM....CWC AVIATION...17