FXUS62 KKEY 061851
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
251 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Surface analysis places an 
expansive area of high pressure over the North Atlantic, currently
centered to the northwest of the Azores, with its axis south of 
the Straits of Florida. To the west in the Gulf of Mexico, 
Tropical Storm Beryl is starting to slowly reintensify, as it 
slowly approaches the southeastern Texas coastline. Winds are 
light out of the southeast across the Florida Keys coastal waters.
Temperatures are generally near 90F across the island chain, with
dew points in the muggy upper 70s. KBYX radar continues to detect
widely scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms, 
mainly in the coastal waters north of the island chain. Outside of
these showers, GOES-16 visible satellite imagery is highlighting 
mostly sunny skies for the CWA.

For tonight, rain and thunder chances will continue to be driven
by mesoscale forcing, including residual boundary collisions.
There is enough current activity north of the islands to warrant
continued low-end chance levels (around 30%) for these 
interactions to generate measurable rainfall at any given
community. It should be noted that although coverage will likely 
be scattered at best, due to the continued light steering flow, 
any given location that does get dotted by the showers may 
experience pretty high rainfall accumulations.

A weak, tropical easterly wave will pass just south of the Florida
Keys Sunday and Sunday night. The associated moisture surge 
coupled with at least a tad better forcing for ascent warrants
slightly elevated rain and thunder chances for those periods. A
slug of drier, dusty air is progged to push towards the Florida 
Keys after the passage of the wave, resulting in close to nil rain
chances for Monday and Monday night. Due to likely ample sunshine,
depending on dew points, Heat Advisories may need to be strongly
considered for Monday.

Beyond Monday, a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell
currently located northeast of the Bahamas is progged to dive 
towards South Florida as it weakens. The cell will make its 
closest approach to the Keys on Wednesday. The synoptic ascent 
associated with this feature warrants elevated rain chances. 
Beyond Wednesday, a series of easterly tropical waves may 
episodically push through the Keys, riding along the southern 
periphery of the ridge of high pressure. Given the gentle east to 
southeasterly steering flow and the presence of these features, 
an extended period of near-to or slightly above normal measurable 
rainfall chances seems prudent for now. Temperatures will remain 
seasonally warm next week outside of any brief rain-cooled 
periods, with highs generally in the lower 90s, and lows in the 
lower to mid 80s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, light to 
gentle southeast to south breezes will continue tonight and 
Sunday, as an axis of high pressure remains south of the Florida 
Keys coastal waters. As the ridge axis shifts, breezes will back 
to the east to southeast for Monday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 
VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow at both EYW and MTH.
Shower activity has remained north of the island chain this 
morning, but a few isolated showers near the terminals are not out
of the question overnight along various boundaries. Confidence in
the exact timing of any shower development is low, so have no 
included VCSH as of now. Surface winds will be out of the 
southeast to south near 5 knots this evening, then will become 
more east to southeast later in the TAF period. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  90  82  90  82 /  30  30  30  30 
Marathon  89  82  89  82 /  30  30  40  30 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....NB
Data Acquisition.....AJP

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