FXUS62 KCHS 062337
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
737 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will remain stalled near the area through much of
next week. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
Convection impacted portions of our inland areas this afternoon,
dropping several inches of rain in some spots. While it has 
trended downward this evening, SPC Mesoscale Analysis continues
to indicate MLCAPEs ~2,500 J/kg across portions of our area.
These locations in neighboring WFOs are seeing an increase in 
convection despite the setting sun. So we wouldn't be surprised 
if some locations far inland see another round of convection 
during the evening hours due to the instability and high PWAT 
values that remain in place. Weak steering winds will support a 
continued risk for locally heavy rainfall. Flooding of low-lying
and poor drainage areas remains a concern.

Warm and humid conditions will persist overnight with lows
ranging from the mid 70s well inland to the lower 80s at the
beaches and Downtown Charleston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 
A mid-level ridge present over the forecast area on Sunday will
slowly begin to weaken into Tuesday with shortwaves rippling 
across the southeastern states. At the surface a weak front will
linger in the vicinity. The weakening ridge aloft will yield 
temperatures in the low 90s through the short term period. With 
dew points in the low to mid 70s heat indices will likely only 
reach up to 103, shy of Heat Advisory criteria. With the 
lingering front in the vicinity significant moisture will be 
available, with PWATs upwards of 2.3- 2.4 inches, which would be
close to the maximum PWAT according to SPC Climatology. 
Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will be 
possible each afternoon, with the threat of heavy rainfall as 
PWATs remain elevated. The best coverage for precipitation will 
be across SE GA, closer to the stalled front and higher PWAT 
values.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The ridging aloft will continue to weaken through the end of 
the week, with additional shortwaves rippling across the 
southeastern states. Deep moisture will remain in place, with 
PWATs well above 2 inches. Scattered to widespread showers and 
thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon, mostly driven by a 
robust afternoon sea breeze. The current forecast has high 
temperatures in the low to mid 90s through the week, resulting 
in heat index values between 100 and 106. Heat Advisories later 
in the week cannot be ruled out, however at this juncture the 
forecast keeps conditions below the 108 criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z TAFs: VFR. While some convection could persist well inland
this evening, it's not expected to impact the TAF sites. Though,
convection could impact KSAV on Sunday, so we introduced a VCSH
towards the end of the TAF time period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon and
early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Southerly winds 10-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft will prevail.

Sunday through Thursday: Generally tranquil conditions expected 
across the local marine waters through the period. Winds will 
average 15 knots or less with seas 2 to 3 ft. 

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...