FXUS61 KOKX 070050 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 850 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The cold front stalls over or near the area through Monday. A series of frontal boundaries will impact the region for much of the week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Adjusted POPs such that chances for showers and thunderstorms are mainly south of Long Island with otherwise just a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms has been pretty limited going into this evening with a lack of forcing but a moist low level environment remains in place and with elevated instability any even small increase in forcing will allow for a higher chance of showers and thunderstorms. As mentioned below, the forcing is not expected to increase. A weakening frontal boundary will likely stall over the area tonight. This boundary will be the focus for some showers and thunderstorms early tonight, mainly south of Long Island. Although there will be plenty of moisture (with dew points in the 70s) as well as instability (at least elevated, forecast soundings show a pretty decent inversion over the area, so anything that develops would have to be elevated), a limiting factor for convection would be lift. With the front weakening, forecast soundings show not a lot of lift to work with. Additionally, shear looks to be weakening as well. The chance for showers and thunderstorms therefore looks to further decrease throughout tonight, and though something strong to severe could develop, especially north and west of NYC, chances do not look overly impressive. Very humid conditions continue overnight. This will lead to the development of fog once again. Already seeing fog develop across eastern parts of the forecast region with patches of dense fog where visibilities are reduced to a quarter mile or less. SPS is out to address this for the rest of tonight. The patchy dense fog will likely continue into early Sunday morning. Will have to monitor to see if more dense fog develops, especially overnight into daybreak. Warm overnight lows expected. Middle to upper 70s across NYC and NE NJ and lower 70s for most other location. Middle to upper 60s are expected across much of the Lower Hudson Valley, though this might be dependent on the location of the front. If it has a tougher time making its way through and remains just west of the area tonight, the lows across the Lower Hudson Valley could be a few degrees warmer than forecast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... The front remains near or over the region on Sunday. Outside of some lingering showers and thunderstorms for eastern areas early in the morning, it should be mainly dry. An isolated shower or thunderstorms is possible, mainly across Long Island and southeast CT as some of the CAMs are showing some development for Sunday. However, the lift continues to look weak, and the precipitation looks to be more stratiform than convective in some of the models, but overall light. Highs may be slightly higher as compared to Saturday, especially away from the coast, as a weak westerly flow may allow for some downsloping. However, dew points will be lower, in the upper 60s for the western half of the forecast area. Therefore, only isolated spots are expected to reach heat indices of 95-99 and the Heat Advisories were not extended into Sunday. Closer to the coast, sea breezes develop, and while they are going to be more humid, especially eastern areas, temperatures will not be as warm. Highs will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s for metro NYC and the interior, while lower to middle 80s are expected for eastern areas. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure remains offshore on Monday, with mostly dry conditions expected. Southerly flow will help allow temperatures to rise into the middle 80s to lower 90s. A frontal boundary approaches the region Tuesday, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The best chances for any precipitation will be from NYC and points north and west. The front lingers in the vicinity of the CWA Wednesday into Wednesday night with chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing. Another front approaches late week, keeping the chances for showers and storms in the forecast. Hard to pinpoint exactly where any storms fire up each day, so will generally keep pops a chance for much of the long term. The only exception will be Tuesday afternoon/evening, where POPs to increased to likely. Temperatures each day will be in either the 80s or lower 90s, with the warmest day of the week on Monday. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A slow moving frontal system dissipates over the terminals through Sunday. Mainly VFR to start with KISP and KGON remaining IFR. Isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out this evening, mainly east of the NYC terminals, but not enough confidence to put in TAF. IFR, potentially LIFR, is expected to continue overnight into early Sunday morning across Long Island and southeast CT terminals. Some IFR may reach JFK briefly around day break and potentially KBDR and KHPN. Otherwise, VFR prevails on Sunday. S-SSW winds under 10 kt this evening will become SW and weaken to around 5 kt overnight. Light flow, possibly NE, will occur Sunday morning before shifting to the SE-S late morning into the afternoon 10 kt or less. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Isolated shower possible through 01z. IFR ceiling timing for JFK may be off by 1-3 hours. MVFR/IFR briefly possible at LGA early Sunday morning, but not expected to reach EWR and TEB. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Sunday Night: Mainly VFR. MVFR/IFR possible eastern Long Island and southeast CT. Monday: VFR. Tuesday PM through Thursday: Periods of MVFR OR IFR with showers/thunderstorms. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Shower and thunderstorm chances remain for the ocean waters and South Shore Bays tonight. Patchy dense fog is present across parts of Eastern Long Island Sound and ocean waters east of Fire Island as well as parts of the Long Island Bays where visibilities will be reduced to less than 1 nautical mile. A marine weather statement is out to address this. Winds and waves remain below SCA criteria from Sandy Hook to Fire Island as well as the non-ocean waters. SCA continues over the other ocean zones through 8 am Sunday morning. However, if conditions lower quicker than forecast, SCA will likely come down earlier. Otherwise, SCA is not expected for the rest of Sunday and Sunday night. Dense fog over the waters is possible tonight into early Sunday morning with a humid air mass in place. Will have to monitor for this possibility. With a relatively weak pressure gradient in place, conditions on the waters are expected to remain below small craft advisory thresholds Monday through the middle of next week. && .HYDROLOGY... While flash flooding is not out of the question as any thunderstorms tonight will have the potential to produce heavy rain, the potential for flash flooding looks lower than in previous forecasts, especially with the lower potential for convection. Enhanced moisture with a slow-moving cold front will bring a chance of widespread minor/poor drainage flooding as well as potential localized flash flooding Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Otherwise, no other widespread hydrologic issues are expected. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High rip current risk remains at the ocean beaches, continuing into this evening. For Sunday, a moderate rip current risk is forecast for the ocean beaches with southerly 5-10 kt winds and ocean waves of around 3-4 ft. For Monday, winds remain nearly the same as the previous day but with ocean seas further subsiding to near 2 to 3 ft, there will be a low rip current risk. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JP NEAR TERM...JM/JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...DS MARINE...BC/JM/JP HYDROLOGY...BC/JP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JM