FXUS61 KGYX 061847 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 247 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms diminish as a weak cold front crosses the area late tonight. High pressure builds over the region on Sunday and remains over the area into the early next week bringing mostly dry conditions. The next chance for showers and storms will be late Tuesday and Wednesday as another front moves into the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to form ahead of a slow moving cold front this afternoon, and gradually make their way toward the coastline by the evening hours. After this morning's convection, most of the storms look to remain fairly tame, but with the heating this afternoon a few strong storms can't be ruled out. The best chance for this would likely be across southwestern New Hampshire, which has had a couple more hours of heating so far today. Most of the activity winds down through the evening, with just a few lingering showers near the coast after midnight. The front doesn't bring any appreciable airmass change tonight, so a warm and muggy night is expected again. Lows dip into the upper 60s to low 70s south of the mountains, with some low to mid 60s across northern areas where some relatively drier air starts to make its way in overnight. Given the airmass, patchy fog is expected to develop again tonight, with marine fog moving inland overnight, and radiation fog elsewhere. Winds shift to westerly and begin to bring slightly drier air in, helping to gradually mix out the fog toward daybreak tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... The front stalls nearby tomorrow, likely just offshore. Weak high pressure tries to push in from the west, helping to bring in some relatively drier air, with dew points mostly in the 60s. Given the weak pressure gradient, a sea breeze is expected to develop along the immediate coast tomorrow, holding highs to mostly the 70s. Inland, temps warm into the upper 80s to near 90 in most spots, with highs in the low 80s across northern locations. Given the airmass, a few pop up showers or an isolated thunderstorm are likely tomorrow, especially across the higher terrain. But otherwise, a return to more sunshine is expected for tomorrow. The high makes little progress into New England tomorrow night, keeping the humid conditions ongoing with lows mainly in the 60s. Some patchy radiation fog is likely again tomorrow night, but doesn't look to be as widespread as tonight. Otherwise, conditions look pretty quiet for tomorrow night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A rather warm and muggy pattern to continue in the week ahead with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and again late week. although most of the time it should remain dry. The overall pattern in the long term can best be described as a typical mid summer pattern with high dewpoints and a weak upper level flow. In the dallies starting with Monday, weak high pressure will make for a dry and warm day. On Tuesday a weak cool front will approach from the Great Lakes area. Moisture will surge ahead of this front along with increasing instability. Would expect showers and thunderstorms to develop during the late Afternoon and continue during Tuesday Night into Wednesday. The front will try to cross the area Wednesday morning after which showers would diminish. Given the high dewpoints can't rule out scattered showers or thunderstorms. New GFS is wetter than previous runs and stalls the front over the area. Will need to see if that trend continues...if so then Thursday could be wetter. Later Friday into Saturday tropical moisture originating from the south may ride north toward New England. Have raised pops some over the NBM as this could produce more organized showers by weeks end. Given how high the dew point temperatures will be all week, added patchy fog most nights. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...Some brief showers, and a low prob of a thunderstorm, move through most terminals this afternoon and evening from west to east. Marine fog brings IFR to LIFR along coastal terminals again tonight. Valley fog may also bring a brief period of restrictions to inland terminals later tonight, then conditions improve to VFR tomorrow morning. Fog may linger at RKD into tomorrow morning again, but overall improving conditions are expected, with mostly VFR conditions tomorrow. Nighttime valley fog is possible and may bring restrictions again tomorrow night, but doesn't look as widespread as tonight. Long Term...VFR to MVFR conditions Monday into Tuesday as week high pressure i early Thursday with isolated showers. otherwise VFR conditions Thursday Midday lasting into Saturday. overhead. A cool front will result in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday Afternoon and night bring areas of IFR. Conditions improve Wednesday into Thurday as high pressure returns resulting in MVFR to VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Short Term...A weak cold front approaches from the west tonight, and stalls near the waters tomorrow. Locally dense fog continues across the waters into tomorrow, before some improvement it likely late. Otherwise, fair conditions are expected tomorrow and tomorrow night as weak high pressure gradually builds in. Long Term...Wind and waves may approach SCA levels Tuesday otherwise an extended period of relatively light winds and low waves are expected through Friday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR/SHORT TERM...Clair LONG TERM...Lulofs