FXHW60 PHFO 061946 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 946 AM HST Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A stable moderate trade wind pattern with mainly light windward and mauka showers will prevail through Monday. Increasing trade winds and slightly wetter conditions are possible during the middle of next week, with breezy trades continuing into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Radar and satellite imagery show partly cloudy skies with passing light windward and mauka showers this morning under moderate trade winds. Little change to the overall forecast is expected through the weekend as a surface ridge far north of the islands maintains our current trade wind weather regime. Stable lower atmospheric conditions across the state will help to limit rainfall amounts with any shower that develops this weekend. Guidance continues to show high pressure far northeast of the state strengthening towards the middle of next week. This will tighten the local pressure gradient across the islands resulting in slightly stronger trade winds. Guidance also continues to show a slight increase in precipitable water moving across the state Tuesday through Thursday next week which will bring wetter trade wind conditions to windward and mauka areas, with some of these showers possibly spilling over into leeward areas at times. Conditions return to a more typical summertime trade wind pattern late next week and continue into next weekend. && .AVIATION... Moderate to locally breezy trade winds are expected through the rest of the weekend. Brief periods of low cigs, SHRA and MVFR conds will be possible at times mainly over windward and mauka areas. Otherwise conds should remain mainly VFR. No AIRMETs are currently in effect. && .MARINE... High pressure ridging north of the state will produce gentle to locally fresh trades today and persist through early- next week. By mid- next week, as a surface high becomes more well established far northeast of the islands, trades will increase to locally strong. This will likely warrant a Small Craft Advisory for the typically windy zones around Maui County and the Big Island. Surf remains near or slightly below seasonal norms along south facing shorelines through the forecast period. Mixed swell out of the southeast and south southwest will maintain small surf through much of next week. Likewise, flat to tiny surf persists for northern exposures through the forecast period. A short to medium period NE swell will maintain small surf along east- facing shores even as background trade wind remain rather weak. Choppy conditions return mid- next week as trades strengthen next week. The combination of higher than normal water levels and afternoon spring tides are resulting in water levels running over half a foot above guidance around the Big Island and Maui. This will cause minor coastal flooding issues for both Big Island and Maui this afternoon and again on Sunday afternoon during peak high tide. Coastal flood conditions are borderline around Maui and the Coastal Flood Statement may be dropped there sooner than the Big Island coastal zones. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ahue AVIATION...Kino MARINE...Thomas