FXAK67 PAJK 062239
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
239 PM AKDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SHORT TERM...High pressure continues to dominate conditions over the 
panhandle. This will allow for a continued marine layer to remain
in place over the Outer Coast from Baranof island northward. 
Farther inland, marine layer clouds extend northward from Point 
Gardner up through Skagway and Haines. Temperatures continue to 
remain in the mid fifties to low sixties with the extended cloud 
cover. To the south, clear skies have continued which has been 
allowing for warmer conditions with temperatures reaching into the
sixties and seventies. With the continued marine layer clouds 
across the central and northern panhandle, drizzle was added into 
the forecast for the likelihood of more drizzle occurring across 
the area. 

.LONG TERM...Overview: High pressure ridge over the AK Gulf remains 
in place into the weekend keeping overall quiet weather. An 
active pattern returns mid week.

On Monday, the ridge will remain strong with anticyclonic flow 
aloft. The result is a clearing of skies throughout the panhandle 
with temperatures in many areas hitting above 70 degrees. Naturally, 
typical sea breezes will develop, and areas around Point Couverden, 
Cross Sound, and Northern Lynn Canal will increase wind speeds in 
the afternoon. Otherwise, enjoy the calmer weather before clouds and 
potentially rainy and windy pattern sets in mid week.

Wednesday begins an active pattern for the panhandle with the 
entrenched ridge slowly being broken down on Tuesday. Model 
consistency on this particular front has not been ideal, but what 
can be said is that winds will generally increase to at least 15-20 
knots in the inner channels with the fronts passage. Towards the 
north, troughing in the Yukon and northern British Columbia will 
lead to dropping surface pressure. With the rising pressure in the 
post frontal environment, it will result in a tightening gradient in 
northern Lynn Canal and Taiya Inlet. Currently, gusts to 40 mph near 
Skagway are expected, but changes in placement of the troughing 
could lower or raise wind speeds. 

Beyond the mid week, ensemble means were largely used to make 
generalizations about the upper air pattern. Ensemble spread was too 
large with individual shortwaves moving along an active, trough 
pattern. Ultimately, what can be said is the pattern will remain 
active, but individual features cannot be determined at this time. 

&&

.AVIATION...So far today, the area has been split in two by two 
very different weather patterns.

Areas along and south of Frederick Sound have had VFR conditions 
with clear to mostly clear skies with winds on the lighter side. 
Going forward, these conditions should continue through tonight, and 
into tomorrow.

Areas north of Frederick Sound have improved since this morning to 
mostly VFR conditions. There are a couple of outliers to all this, 
the Yakutat and Elfin Cover areas are seeing times of LIFR 
conditions due to CIGs near 500 feet.

Going forward, as a ridge builds over the gulf, any leftover rain 
should fade out and CIGs should continue to rise. So overall 
improving conditions are expected to high-end MVFR to VFR. There is 
some evidence of brief lowered conditions overnight, but those 
conditions would improve quickly around 6AM to 9AM Sunday 
morning.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-644. 

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...GJS

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