Expires:No;;571909 AXNT20 KNHC 062312 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Jul 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 23.9N 93.0W at 06/2100 UTC or 330 nm SE of Corpus Christi Texas, moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted N of 23N and W of 90W. Peak seas are currently 21 ft. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will approach the Texas coast on Sunday and Sunday night and then make landfall on the Texas coast on Monday. Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 20N W of 77W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 17N17W to 07N39W. The ITCZ extends from 07N39W to 06N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 14W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section on the latest details on Tropical Storm Beryl, located in the western Gulf of Mexico. Weak 1015 mb high pressure is analyzed in the NE Gulf waters. Outside of Beryl, 3-5 ft seas and gentle winds prevail in the eastern waters and along the central Gulf coast. Winds and seas increase with proximity to Beryl in the south-central Caribbean. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Beryl will move to 24.8N 94.2W Sun morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 26.0N 95.5W Sun afternoon, 27.5N 96.3W Mon morning, then move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 29.1N 96.7W Mon afternoon. Conditions will deteriorate across the western Gulf of Mexico as Beryl moves toward the Texas coast the remainder of the weekend into early next week. High pressure will build in the wake of Beryl, with conditions improving Monday night into Tuesday as Beryl moves inland. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical wave in the central Caribbean. A classic summertime pattern remains in force across the Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades prevail in the central Caribbean, including within the Windward Passage and between Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Seas in these winds are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, trades are gentle to moderate with 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong tradewinds and rough seas are expected across much of the central and NW Caribbean into early next week. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on the tropical waves in the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean. 1014 mb low pressure is centered in the northern Bahamas. A surface trough extends from the low to 27N69W to 31N65W. Scattered moderate convection is from 22N to 30N between 61W and 71W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive subtropical ridge across the midlatitude and subtropical Atlantic. Latest satellite scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate trades across the basin, with fresh NE winds noted east of 30W. Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters, increasing to 7-11 ft in the aforementioned area of fresh winds. For the forecast west of 55W, the low/trough will linger through the weekend before dissipating. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail across the area with mainly gentle to moderate winds. Locally fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola later in the weekend. $$ ERA